Another Year

 I have postponed my departure from La Paz and expect to remain in the Sea of Cortez until April 2011.  This would put me back in Australia in April or May 2012.

When due to my engine problems I missed the deadline of sailing out of La Paz before mid-June in order to avoid the hurricane season I figured that I would still be able to make the Horn in the optimal Dec-Jan period if I departed La Paz in mid-November, the end of the hurricane season.  But Brenda wasn't so sure and I did some precise calculations that jolted me out of my wishful thinking.

Multiplying the point-to-point distances by 1.2 (to account for sailing off the rhumb line due to the vagaries of the winds), assuming modest average boat speeds of 3.5 kt (84 nm per day) to the Galapagos and 4.0 kt (96 nm per day) to the Horn and layovers of 5 days in Acapulco and 3 days each at Cocos and the Galapagos, I calculate that I would have to sail out of La Paz on 8 October in order to round the Horn on 1 January, the middle of the optimal span of time for making the rounding.

The problem of course is that early October is still in the hurricane season along the Central America coast.  I could take a chance and go for it but I don't relish the idea of running for whatever strange anchorage I can reach if I get notification that there is a storm approaching the area.  Leaving La  Paz after the hurricane season would put me in danger of rounding the Horn in February or even March, something that I want to avoid at all costs because those rogue waves can wreak havoc on a boat.

Brenda, Arnold, Reg and I personally know the penalties to be paid for sailing to a schedule rather than to conditions.  The winter crossing from Western Australia to New Zealand set the stage for being pounded hard for 3 days in Spencer Gulf, a terrifying night entry into American Harbour to avoid another gale, and two heavy gales in the Tasman, one of which knocked a cruise ship on its side.  The very late departure from Neah Bay for San Francisco on 24 October resulted in another rough trip under gale conditions with Brenda down below seasick for about 3 days and the fordeck awash with the chain locker full to the brim with water.  (The wind must have been strong because in San Francisco I noticed that my 16 MHz antenna at the masthead was bent over 45 degrees.)  The last pounding that we got was probably more bad luck than bad planning, when we encountered those 3 gales in what was said to be the worst weather that San Diego had ever experienced.

When I started sailing as a young pup of 42 years of age I used to go looking for trouble to see what boating in rough weather was like.  I'm an old sea dog now and know that trouble will come looking for me, and my task is to avoid it.

This extended stay is certainly no calamity.  To be honest, I was ambivalent about leaving Mexico anyway.  I like La Paz and I like what I've seen of Mexican culture.  Unfortunately I've had my head in the bilge working on the repowering project for so long that I have not been able to see much of the Sea of Cortez, let alone the rest of Mexico.  The same can be said of Brenda, who has patiently watched me go out day after day to work on the boat as though I still had a regular job.  Reg also pointed out that the extra time would be useful for putting a lot of hours on the new engine and making sure that any hidden problems are exposed and corrected.

The plan is for Brenda to return to Mexico after the new year so that we can dedicate a few months to pure touring.  We'll take that train ride to Copper Canyon then use the bus system to try to span the country all of the way to Yucatan.